Societies where interethnic relations are not institutionalized and political regimes are not durable are at high risk for deadly ethnic clashes along the lines of those experienced in Kyrgyzstan.
The Kyrgyz political elite’s dogged pursuit of ethnocentric policy in a multinational society not only created the preconditions for ethnic conflicts, it continues to prevent the consolidation of all ethnic groups. The coups in March 2005 and April 2010 sparked a predatory competition for power and resources between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks clans. These Kyrgyz and Uzbek political groups instigated and escalated the ethnic clashes which erupted in southern Kyrgyzstan in June 2010.
The coups, the North-South divide, and clan competition are all opening the door for external parties to execute a “divide and influence” strategy in Kyrgyzstan by provoking ethnic conflicts.