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пятница, 18 декабря 2009 г.

Kyrgyzstan is really failed state - the FfP diagnosis. It is an "impressive feat" of kyrgyz regime in 18 years of "tireless work"

Social Indicators
The score for demographic pressures remained at 7.5 in the FSI 2008. The population growth rate is 1.38%, and there is a youth bulge, with 30% of the population under the age of 15. A shortage of access to land and clean water also adds to demographic pressures. The privatization of large farming collectives has left many farmers with only a fraction of a hectare of land, and farmers are struggling to manage their land due to an overall shortage of capital. The indicator for refugees and displaced persons decreased from 6.2 in the FSI 2007 to 5.8 in the FSI 2008. Although Kyrgyzstan continues to host a number of asylum seekers from neighboring Uzbekistan, the number has decreased as the Kyrgyz government has forced many Uzbek citizens to return home.
Economic Indicators
There was no change in Kyrgyzstan’s economic indicators in the FSI 2008. The score for uneven development remained high at 8.0 due to continued group-based inequality... Forty percent of the population lives below the poverty line, and 18% is unemployed. The poorest 10% of households earn 3.8% of the national income, whereas the richest 10% earn 24.3%... the country remains relatively poor, has low rates of foreign investment, and suffers from a large external debt.

Political/Military Indicators
The indicator for legitimacy of the state worsened from 8.2 in the FSI 2007 to 8.4 in the FSI 2008 due to President Bakiyev’s inability to create a government that is transparent, accountable, and free of corruption.

The score for public services worsened from 6.3 in the FSI 2007 to 6.5 in the FSI 2008. Although 98% of the population is literate, access to sanitation and clean water are lacking. Water pollution is a serious problem in Kyrgyzstan, where many people collect water directly from contaminated streams and wells, creating a high prevalence of water-borne diseases throughout the country. Only 77% of the population had access to an improved water source and only 59% had access to sanitation. The government continued to restrict freedom of expression and association, and police tortured and mistreated prisoners in detention centers, resulting in a human rights score of 7.9 in the FSI 2008. In addition, the government imposed harsh restrictions on freedom of assembly, and security forces often used violence to break up demonstrations in order to limit opposition.

The indicator for the security apparatus worsened from 7.9 in the FSI 2007 to 8.1 in the FSI 2008. The government has an elite security force which exerts strict control over public demonstrations and has recently placed tougher restrictions on press freedom. The score for factionalized elites remained at a high 7.5 in the FSI 2008, as politics in Kyrgyzstan are some of the most fractious of all the former Soviet republics in Central Asia. Increasingly, President Bakiyev has been leading the country in a more authoritarian direction by increasing his party’s control of parliament through flawed elections. External influence worsened from 7.0 in the FSI 2007 to 7.4 in the FSI 2008 since Kyrgyzstan serves as a key route for the U.S. to supply and move troops into Afghanistan. In addition, Russia maintains an air base in Kyrgyzstan.

Core Five State Institutions

LeadershipMilitaryPoliceJudiciaryCivil Service
PoorWeakPoorWeakWeak

In 2005, Kurmanbek Bakiyev was elected president after Askar Akayev’s forced resignation. However, confidence in the government leadership remains lacking, and these attitudes are similar to those that led to the resignation of Akayev. President Bakiyev is leading the country toward a one-party state, as his party, Ak Khol, now controls parliament. His regime has failed to maintain security and develop a stable economy, and recent elections have been widely criticized as flawed.

The state of the military in Kyrgyzstan is weak due to internal violence, chronic border disputes, and poor leadership. It has not been successful in maintaining security for civilians or the government.

The police force has frequently been involved in the violent suppression of protests, blackmail, extortion, and other criminal practices. President Bakiyev’s attempts at reforming law enforcement have been ineffective, and the police force continues to work for the government to repress opposition, rather than protect citizens.

Although many politicians in Kyrgyzstan have urged reforms of the judiciary, none have been implemented. Judicial independence is lacking, and it is widely believed that judges are subject to outside pressures and are willing to accept bribes for favorable decisions.

Overall, the civil service is disorganized and weak. Ethnic divisions prevalent throughout the civil service have hampered its effectiveness. Kyrgyz have dominant positions in government and law enforcement, Uzbeks control positions dealing with trade, while other ethnic groups are often excluded.

Prognosis
Political unrest and economic uncertainty currently plague the country of Kyrgyzstan, and government reform efforts have had little success. There is potential for economic growth as demands increase for Kyrgyz oil and gas resources, but government corruption is an impediment to foreign investment. In addition, public confidence in the government is low and recent attempts to consolidate power in the hands of the president and the ruling party have fueled protests and unrest, leading to continued concerns over the country’s stability.

Copyright (C) 2009 The Fund for Peace

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My comments: Kyrgyzstan today in a historical dead end. On July 23 in Kyrgyzstan Bakiev finally liquidated the election process and closed up the opportunity for national development under civilized democratic way. Today, the state is managed by illegitimate criminal power that does not recognize basic rights of people to have independent opinion. Criminal incompetent government, family-clan based governance. Recent kyrgyz regime built the policy of hypocritical, strict and cynical persecution of opposition, human rights activists and independent journalists. Bakiev has destroyed best expectations of people and until he remains in power the country will continue following the tragic path.


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